Community Resilience to Climate Change Theory, Research Section I Introduction & Key Concepts

SECTION I INTRODUCTION KEY CONCEPTS Current conditions Climate science change Why this matters Introduction Key Concepts Global climate change is arguably one of the most pervasive issues in our modern world , drawing in everyone from politicians , planning practitioners , and researchers to academics , social activists , and average citizens . Depending on who you ask , climate change is among the greatest threats facing humanity and the planet as a whole . Since the 19805 , considerable attention and resources have been directed toward climate models , which project the physical , ecological , and effects of a changing planet . Recent priorities include shoring up of urban infrastructure to withstand those changes efforts such as building a to combat sea level rise , upgrading a sewer system to accommodate heavy precipitation , and lightening road surfaces to reduce heat absorption . More recently , researchers and practitioners have come to focus on the human outcomes of climate change those aspects that are crucially important but harder to tackle mental and physical illness , economic inequity , and displacement , to name a few . With all of this in mind , we must ask ourselves , How do we make a city and its inhabitants resilient to climate change ?

We will go deeper into this question throughout the present text , exploring various perspectives on resilience theoretical and practical descriptions regional climate resilience plans and opportunities for integrating salient into climate resilience planning efforts . As you will see , resilience is a tricky , flexible notion . You will be asked to develop , discuss , and revisit your own perspectives on the subject throughout the course in order to cultivate a better understanding this complex topic . Climate Science Manifestations of Change Climate science is an intricate discipline unto itself , and we will not cover it in too much depth here . Rather , the following information should serve as a refresher for some , and basic orientation for others . For a hel visual overview of the information included below , please visit the Planet Nutshell Climate Science Series at . Climate change is commonly associated with an increase in global temperatures , and is sometimes used synonymously with global warming , though the latter is only one facet of the larger issue . While climate change refers to long term weather patterns , precipitation , and humidity , both natural and , global warming refers specifically to induced warming since the period . Though climate change is a natural process , its progression and global warming have reached unprecedented levels in our world . Research , conducted over many decades , points to carbon dioxide ( emissions as the primary culprit , resulting mainly from combustion of fossil fuels , deforestation , and land cover change 15 . While a certain amount of from respiration , decomposition and other natural processes would not be cause for concern , excessive amounts as we have today accumulate in the atmosphere , producing a green effect which traps heat , warms the planet , and disrupts known weather patterns 14 . Changes in weather hotter or colder days , drought , heavy rain , snow and storms are just some of the manifestations of climate change on our planet and in our lives . Others include melting glaciers and sea level rise extreme flooding , erosion and wildfires altered growing seasons which affect food security disruption or collapse of ecosystems water contamination destruction of infrastructure including buildings , roads , and ecological resources and spread of disease . All people and places will not experience the same effects to the same degree , but the global reach of climate change is undeniable . It is imperative and communities understand their unique risks , and explore opportunities to maintain vital physical infrastructure , ecosystem services , and social supports in the face of an uncertain future . Thinking about Resilience Resilience , specifically climate change resilience , is at the core of this volume . The word has become ubiquitous across numerous disciplines engineering , ecology , urban planning , and various social sciences , to name a few but still lacks a clear , accepted definition or interpretation . Indeed , the exact parameters of resilience tend to change considerably depending on the academic discipline or practical context within which it is applied . Is resilience to maintain the status quo and resist change , or to roll with the punches , adapt , and recalibrate ?

Is a resilient system rigid or flexible diverse or specialized or ?

Is a resilient city one in which buildings remain standing capital is uncompromised humans are able to thrive in body and mind ?

In section II , you will have the chance to explore various conceptions of resilience , but for the moment , consider what you know about this word and what it means to you . As an additional point of consideration , practical work with resilience is sometimes impeded by the lack of a universal interpretation or assessment framework . Plans or research projects across disciplines and sectors may appear to address resilience in spirit , but use inconsistent language such as adaptation , stability , or recovery . Furthermore , variability in identifying and measuring resilience provides challenges when comparing data or even trying to assess the situation in a single case 17 . Examples of various assessment , and practical iterations of resilience in planning , will be covered in sections III and IV . Though resilience is often propped up as an ideal state or condition of systems ( social , ecological , or otherwise ) the concept has not been without critique . Namely , with regard to climate change , activists and scholars have pointed to the potential for a goal of resilience to reify inequity and environmental injustice 18 . Though newer developments in the field

of resilience thinking seek to go deeper than the obvious status concerns , and account for nuanced political or economic facets of resilience , there is arguably much room for improvement . More details and opportunity for discussion on this point will be provided in section Why Does it Matter ?

Many of us have heard climate change horror stories apocalyptic accounts of how bad things could get if we allow the earth to warm beyond a critical tipping point . This is indeed a frightening prospect for the future , but the reality is that millions of people , at home and abroad , are already feeling the devastating effects of these changes . The impacts of climate change are not evenly distributed , but have been and will be felt most intensely by those in less wealthy , less developed regions of the world 11 . Notably , these locations contribute relatively little to the problem , but suffer for our behavior in the world . Here in the United States , socially and economically marginal communities often bear the brunt of climate change extremes , from and flooding to drought and air pollution . As planners , scholars , and human beings , it is within your purview to consider these realities and pursue action . Your community may not yet have experienced a Hurricane Katrina , a Paris heatwave , a Somali drought , or coastal flooding you yourself may not have faced starvation , conflict , loss of home and family as a result of such occurrences , but a future without action is bleak for us all . It is important to address climate risks and opportunities for resilience now , not only for those already severely impacted , but for yourself and future generations . Literature Cited . 2005 ) The single greatest threat The United States and global climate disruption . Harvard International Review , 27 ( 2005 ) Adapting to climate change is there scope for ecological management in the face of a global threat ?

Adaptive management in the face of climate change . Journal of Applied Ecology , 2018 , January 16 ) Timeline The history of climate modelling . Carbon Brief . Retrieved from li . 2009 ) World Climate Research Programme Achievements , activities and challenges . World Meteorological Organization ( Bulletin , 58 ( Edwards , 2001 ) Representing the global atmosphere Computer models , data , and knowledge about climate change . In . Miller and . Edwards ( Changing the atmosphere Expert knowledge and environmental governance ( Cambridge , MA MIT Press . Mohamed , 2017 ) as a response to coastal erosion and flooding A case study from Grande , West lndian Ocean ) Regional Environmental Change , 17 ( li ) Adrian , A . 2013 ) Adaptation to climate change impacts on urban storm water A case study in , Sweden . Climatic Change , 116 ( 231 . 2019 , April 25 ) takes climate change fight to the streets by pouring cooler pavement . Times . Retrieved from . 2009 ) Why we disagree about climate change Understanding controversy , inaction and opportunity . Cambridge , UK New York Cambridge University Press . 10 . 2011 ) Climate change and urban resilience . Current Opinion in Environmental Sustainability , 11 . Dinar , Williams , 2006 ) The distributional impact of climate change on rich and poor countries . Environment and Development Economics , 11 ( 12 . Hess , 2008 ) Climate change The public health response . American Journal of Public Health , 98 ( 13 . A . 2016 ) The concepts of adaptation , vulnerability , and resilience in the anthropology of climate change Considering the case of displacement and migration . In Crate and ( Anthropology and Climate Change ( New York , NY . NASA . 2019 ) Overview Weather , global warming and climate change . Global Climate Change Resources . Retrieved from 15 . Understand climate change . Retrieved from 16 . NASA . 2019 ) The effects of climate change . Global Climate Change Facts . Retrieved from 17 . Quinlan , Peterson , 2016 ) Measuring and assessing resilience Broadening understanding through multiple disciplinary perspectives . Journal of Applied Ecology , 53 ( 18 . 2015 ) Resilience and justice Debates and developments . international Journal of Urban and Regional Research , 39 ( 19 . 2018 ) Assessing vulnerability to urban heat A study of disproportionate heat exposure and access to refuge by status in Portland , Oregon . International Journal of Environmental Research and Public Health , 15 ( li ) 6140 . 20 . Cutter , Mitchell , Gail , Melton , 2006 ) The long road home Race , class , and recovery from Hurricane Katrina . Environment Science and Policy for Sustainable Development , 21 . Rodriguez , Aguilera , de , Kaiser , 2015 ) The impact ofthe California drought on food security among rural families of Mexican origin . Journal of Applied Research on Children , 22 . Liu , Wilson , Wang , Bell , 201 ) Who elderly is most vulnerable to exposure to and health risks of fine particulate matter from wildfire smoke ?

American Journal of Epidemiology , 186 ( STUDENT EXERCISES To be completed prior to reading assigned articles ( Based on your current understanding of the concept , define resilience . You may use diagrams , words , or sentences to describe your understanding . Choose a newsworthy , event and place from the past few years ( examples Camp Fire in Paradise Hurricane Maria in Puerto Rico heat wave in Europe ) Using your working definition , identify factors that advance or limit climate resilience in those communities ( examples access to housing , healthcare or recovery support supportive built infrastructure land use or zoning codes ) Please complete these exercises before reading additional assigned material . Try to articulate your position on this topic before you are by other writers . You will revisit your responses at the end this course to see how they change . FOR INSTRUCTORS CLASSROOM ACTIVITIES ( Ask students to share and compare their working definitions of resilience . Ask each student to share their selected newsworthy event ( Exercise ) with the class . Alternatively , if most students have selected similar events , you may choose to form small groups for discussion . Bring a few news articles from recent years to add to the students discussion . Rather than focusing on specific past events , these could highlight future conditions and possible adaptations . Examples New York Times , 2019 , As Phoenix Heats Up , the Night Comes Alive , 2019 , Building For An Uncertain Future Miami Residents Adapt To The Changing Climate National Geographic , 2019 , Massive Dead Zone could be One of the Largest Chicago Tribune , 2018 , Federal Climate Change Report Paints Grim Picture for Midwest , 2019 , California Wildfires Burn 500 more Land because of Climate Change

READINGS INCLUDED Open access articles Full text included , and , 2013 ) Cities and climate change The precedents and why they matter . Urban Studies , 50 ( 2017 ) Resilience for whom ?

The problem structuring process of the resilience analysis . Sustainability , 1196 . Meyer , 2019 , January 15 ) Are we living through climate changes scenario ?

The Atlantic . Retrieved from . due to copyright , a reproduction of this article is not included in the volume , but it may be accessed online . ALTERNATIVE SELECTIONS Full text not included May be accessible through your university library or elsewhere , 2011 ) Resilience for whom ?

Emerging critical of resilience . Geography Compass , 640 . 2019 ) Chapter Cascades . In The earth Life after warming ( New York Random House , Cities and Climate Change The Precedents and Why They Matter by Michael and Vladimir This article was originally published in Urban Studies , 50 ( This work is licensed under a Creative Commons ( license ABSTRACT This paper reviews the long tradition of climatological and meteorological applications prior to the emergence in the of early work on the climate change interface . It shows how valuing and seeing the urban came to be achieved within modern scientific meteorology and how in a limited but significant set of cases that science has contributed to urban practice . The paper traces the evolution of urban climatology since 1950 as a distinct research field within physical geography and meteorology , and its transition from observational to process modelling reviews the precedents , successful or otherwise , of knowledge transfer from science into public action through climatically aware regulation or design of urban environment and notes the neglect of these precedents in contemporary climate change serious omission . INTRODUCTION It is an indisputable fact that cities were initially overlooked in the process . The science consisted of climatic forecasts framed at a global scale and the policy stakeholders were international or state actors . Scientists involved in global climate forecasting were slow to engage with the urban phenomenon except as an anomaly , city weather stations being a source of data distortion within the synoptic grid . The initial techniques for calculating national greenhouse gas inventories were based on the sectors of energy , industry , land use , agriculture and waste , making it hard to detect the role of . Cities were not mentioned in the Kyoto Protocol . A similar sectoral logic applied to the periodic Global Environmental Outlook published by the United Nations Environment Programme . Governmental actors reinforced this predisposition it was natural forthe process of international negotiation to frame the climate change issue in terms of ministerial portfolios . The conventions of intergovernmental diplomacy discouraged consideration of as a forcing factor and cities as distinct territorial stakeholders within the process . Today , these are breaking down , bringing a sense of fresh opportunity at the urban level . The increasingly fine resolution of models of the earth atmosphere ( down to 25 globally ) means that cities are for the first time visible within general circulation systems . The environment of the city with its geometry , materials , impermeable surfaces and pollution concentrations , is beginning to be resolved in weather models . Governmental actors have realised that mayors may be able to maintain progress where international agreement had stalled . entered for the first time as a climate change consideration in the fourth assessment report of 2007 and the fifth report due in 2011 will contain a separate chapter on cities and attempt a scale assessment of their role in carbon pollution and their potential adaptability to climate risk . The contemporary literature on cities and climate least this Special Issue of Urban cities at last incorporated into global climate policy both as causal agents in greenhouse gas and as vulnerable targets . In thinking about cities and climate change , it is hard to avoid the word unprecedented . Everything hinges on recent scientific discovery and response to projected future threat . The stretches back no further than 1988 , the year of UN General Assembly Resolution and the establishment ofthe Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change or 1991 and the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change or 1997 , year of the Kyoto Protocol . All the actors are in 1990 , the Climate Alliance in 1991 , Rio Conference in 1992 , Climate Change Programme in 1993 , in 1994 , the UN Cities and Climate Change in 2008 , the World Bank Mayors Task Force on Urban Poverty and Climate Change in 2009 . It is often remarked that the discovery of global climate change has coincided with the tipping point to a world in which outnumber rural folk . So the threat to humanity Fuelled by two powerful forces that have been unleashed by development and manipulation of the environment in the industrial age , the effects of urbanization and climate change are converging in dangerous ways which threaten to have unprecedented negative impacts upon quality of life and economic and social stability ( 2011 , This paper challenges none of the above except to put a question mark by the word unprecedented . It was at the scale of the urban heat island that anthropogenic linked to carbon first systematically studied . The seminal contribution came from Albert whose Das ( 1937 ) originated as a thesis under the supervision of the geographer Edward Fels . own work on environmental impacts of economic businessman as shaper of the earth , Der

Mensch als Gestalter der ( 1954 ) directly in line between the pioneering conservation science of George Perkins Marsh ( 1882 ) he Earth as Modified by Human Action or Nathaniel ( 1905 ) Man and the Earth , and modern environmental conservation represented by the Foundation symposium Man Role in Changing the Face of the Earth ( Thomas , 1956 ) Rachel Carson ( 1962 ) Spring , Wilson ( 1971 ) Report of the Study of Man Impact on Climate and Ward and Only One Earth ( 972 ) Urban climatology has a long pedigree in the conservation movement . Since he study of urban weather systems is explicitly a science of anthropogenic cause , it has always challenged cities to assume responsibility for their role as of their climate ( 1956 , 170 ) So there is also a prequel in the realm of collective action . Greenhouse gas mitigation is in municipal energy provision and public health action and smog . The history of town planning can be written in terms of a collective response to the of Patrick defined it in the early century , substituting ' city for the black pollution and physical concentration of ' capitalism ( 1915 ) strategy has much older antecedents . The design of cities local knowledge of wind , sun , humidity and precipitation , and of what is needed to survive in a given geographical setting against the contingencies of weather and human enemies . The history of urban habitats is notjust one of passive adaptation to regional climate but of active transformation to produce radically unlike their surrounding , cooler , drier , less windy , more ventilated , or whatever is most conducive to comfort at a given latitude . City design is the oldest type of climate change ( 1951 ) These are explored in order , the next section dealing with the science of cities as climatic singularities , and subsequent sections with antecedents of urban policy response . The purpose of these historical excursions becomes apparent in the final section of the pa Jer where we compare the prequel with the sequel and as if and how it matters . THE SCIENTIFIC PRECEDENTS Scientific interest in the atmospheric effect of more than 200 years . As a nation of pioneers , Americans contributed early research into the effects of deforestation , agriculture and on seasonal change ( Fleming , 1998 ) Thomas Jefferson suggested in 1824 that anthropogenic impact should be monitored through climatic surveys repeated once or twice in a century ( 1956 ) However , it was the great cities of Europe contained the sites with the longest instrumental measurement series and here that the climatic changes produced by , densification and suburban growth were most readily visible . Patterns of urban temperature , precipitation and wind circulation were studied for sites around London by Luke Howard between 1806 and 1830 , for Paris in the by , and for Berlin and Vienna in the 18905 by Gustav and Julius Hahn respectively . The physicist Sir Arthur set up a University of Manchester observatory that allowed comparison with a municipal weather station two miles north . He commented The remarkable differences which appear in the temperature records in parts of the city an additional proof , if proof were wanted , that observations taken in or near a large town can not be taken to represent correctly the meteorological character the surrounding districts , but it by no that these observations are of no value . On the contrary , they may lead to some important conclusions on what may be called town weather as country weather ( 1893 , 168 ) of course , the spectacular environmental contamination achieved by free industrial enterprise in the absence of pollution control . Whatever the season , town weather was foul . Its evil reputation was compounded by the orthodox medical assumption that infection occurred theory prevailed only in the final quarter of the century . Some of the century most detailed urban heat island studies were done by ( 1999 ) for example discusses the work of Pierre , author of De des sur ( 1837 ) and Dela dans ses avec la science de et avec la medicine et ( 1851 ) Ventilation and sunlight became overriding concerns of the movement or public health and hygiene , and so for early modern town planning . he literature on the atmospheric environments of cities and their effects on citizens was swelled in the century by a growing number of from regional , for whom the physical environment of the city offered an ideal object of study as a cultural artefact in a natural landscape . An increasing interest in amongst meteorologists was pioneered by Gregor ( Boden und auf , 1911 ) and Rudolf Geiger ( der , 1927 ) Much of this research was German , as was Albert synoptic text Das ( 1937 ) Written as a doctoral thesis in the philosophy acuity of the University of Munich by a monk and geography teacher from the Abbey , Das was a definitive review , based on 225 studies and extensive analysis of comparative data , documenting the differences between urban and climates , and explaining the mechanisms of the urban heat island , wind systems , ventilation and stagnation , anomalies , pollution and its dispersion , and the downwind effects of . By the publication of the second edition in 1956 , its reference list had grown to more than double the original size , incorporating a mainly bibliography by the British public meteorologist Charles Brooks ( 1952 ) Subsequent translation of second edition into English by the US Air Force in 1962 confirmed the of the

science in years . The leading protagonist was the who moved to the US from Germany in 1934 to teach the first graduate course on bioclimatology . A major figure in American meteorology , he served as director of the US Weather Bureau office of climatology from 1954 to 1967 and was a key architect of the . As US representative , he leading light in the Meteorological Organisation , chairing Committee Applications of Meteorology and Climatology from 1971 to 1983 . had a particular interest in the science of urban climates , eventually his own successor volume to Das , The Urban Climate ( 1981 ) One of his most distinctive contributions to the literature was a longitudinal study of the new town of Columbia , Maryland , monitoring for the first time the emergence of an urban heat island as a site with 200 residents in 1968 was developed into a town of population by 1975 ( 1979 ) Heat island studies at every scale continued to be a central object of research as the field of urban climatology developed in the second hal of the century . The geographer Tony Chandler analysed the entire metropolitan climate of Greater London , combining the German technique of instrumental traverses with a field survey involvement of schools , training col and volunteers ( Chandler , 1965 ) The ambitious 10 million Metropolitan Meteorological Experiment monitored an area of more than 4000 square kilometres around St Louis and controversially attributed anomalous patterns of thunderstorms , hai storms and heavy rain to pollution drift east of the city ( 1979 ) Other researchers were tracking the Chicago dust plume 150 miles to Madison Wisconsin ( and Ross 1972 , 61 ) and demonstrating the radical impacts of Houston war development boom upon its rainfall pattern ( 1976 , Be ying Patrick expectation of the clean technologies of the century , pollution concerns continued to dominate the war climate agenda thanks to rapidly rising traffic levels and complex new types of industrial lead , asbestos , SOx , hydrochloric acid , particulates , aerosols and dispersed under free wind conditions but could be trapped and combined into chemical soups under conditions of thermal inversion . At the conclusion of the second edition of Das , Albert defined air pollution as the outstanding issue of the urban environment Enormous amounts gases as well as liquid and solid matter are poured into the air every day by urban industry , household heating and . It is not to compare the city to a volcano which continuously clouds of gas , dust and ashes ( 1956 , 66 ) London experienced deadly in 1952 and 1955 , and New York on Thanksgiving Day of 1966 and in July 1970 ( Bach , 1972 ) The first international conference on air pollution took place in New York in 1955 and convened a major scientific gathering in St Louis in 1961 , under the title Air over cities ( 1961 ) In these Cold War years , urban climate research also had the stimulus of the Soviet Union known use of weather engineering technologies , and military concern for climatic dispersal of chemical and radioactive hazards ( Derrick , 1968 , 1976 Fleming , 2010 ) One effect was to bring more atmospheric chemistry and physics into the urban arena . New measurement techniques such as height balloons and remote sensing were added to the traditional repertoire of meteorological observation . The focus of analysis shifted towards measurement and modelling of energy on the of the urban boundary layer and the of the street canyon . Seminal contributions such as Ted Descriptive ( 1966 ) Werner The energy balance climatology of a system ( 1970 ) and Tim Oke Boundary Layer Climates ( 1978 ) laid the basis for progressively more sophisticated numerical modelling of the urban climate as computing power increased ( 2003 ) Urban climatology was enriched by fluid mechanics contributed the techniques of ( computational fluid dynamic ) modelling to simulate air flow in the complex urban environment geography contributed GIS ( geographical information system ) methodology , allowing on urban land use to be combined with atmospheric variables at high levels of resolution architecture contributed CAD ( computer assisted design ) providing the link between climatology and the burgeoning fields of environmental engineering and passive and architecture ( PLEA ) environmental management contributed modelling software such as the which allows interactions to be simulated at high levels of resolution . Last but not least , increased computing power and speed within the parent discipline of meteorology brought greater spatial precision to weather modelling so that for the first time climatology could begin to be integrated with the synoptic mainstream ( 2000 ) The scientific consolidation of urban meteorology was matched at the institutional level . played a key role in establishing urban climatology networks within the World Meteorological Organisation . A meeting on Urban Climates and Building sponsored with the World Health Organisation in Brussels in 1968 was the first in a regular and continuing series of scientific conferences and art reviews , led first by Tony Chandler and then by the urban meteorologist Tim Oke . Significant features at the international level have been the continuing strength of the German research tradition , the emergence ( with direct German links ) of an equally vigorous scientific culture in Japan , the linkage to other agencies such as WHO , and the , and the of bodies such as the International Federation for Housing and Planning ( and the International Society for Biometeorology ( Conscious of the need to establish their group identity , urban climate scientists formed their own International Association for Urban Climatology ( in 2001 under the leadership of Tim Oke . website and conferences are the principal focus for urban climatology today . So the organisation is relatively new , but the scientific community has a track record of work on anthropogenic climate change .

THE POLICY Research in urban climatology was never just about blue skies thinking . Scientists knew from the outset that they were studying an anthropogenic system with opportunities for positive feedback . In the words of Parry the urban climate deserves the interest as an element of the physical background town life , and as an climate which may be by suitable planning ( Parry , 1956 , 45 ) The duty of knowledge transfer from science to urban practice was a constant theme throughout the influential career of The knowledge we have acquired about urban climates should not remain an academic exercise on an interesting aspect the atmospheric boundary It should be applied to the design of new towns or the reconstruction old ones . The purpose is , course , to mitigate or eliminate the undesirable climate brought about by urbanization ( 1981 , 255 ) The call to action was given urgency by trends ( Douglas , 1983 ) The , once regarded as a clean technology , was found to be a significant chemical polluter and a forcing factor in the urban heat island , with each vehicle emitting as much heat as a domestic boiler rates of grew in direct relation to highway construction and surface parking loss of vegetation and permeable surfaces also reduced the moisture available for evaporative cooling in the urban heat island the growing height and mass of urban buildings increased aerodynamic roughness and complex turbulence effects at ground level , while denser building materials with high thermal admittance , absorbed and retained heat public health concerns over photochemical smog were compounded by the issues surrounding nuclear power generation . Reid and John Ross wrote The time is at hand to begin planning and redesigning urban areas with much more attention to climatic considerations ( Ross , 1972 , 52 ) In terms of recommendations , urban climatology had begun ( as in , 1937 , 95 ) with simple advice about sunshine and shadow , and the need to locate residential districts upwind of industry , in the climatically beneficial direction . In years , a progressively more sophisticated critique of current practices . In November 1972 , plenary address to the American Meteorological Society Conference on the Urban Environment in Philadelphia set out an agenda for Widely divergent views have architects , engineers , political scientists and real estate developers . To this chorus of intellectual bricklayers the meteorologist is a Sound must begin to penetrate the planning process ( 1973 , 86 ) Attacking the fatalistic attitude of towards weather effects of their own making , he offered a set of rules for urbanism that could be reprinted verbatim today do not build on flood plains mitigate heat island effects with shade trees reduce surface parking lots introduce vegetation into urban surfaces capture waste heat for district heating promote natural outdoor ventilation through urban design promote electric transport and the private automobile in cities promote housing which makes use of solar power for space and water heating , with reflective external paint to reduce albedo . Since topographic and synoptic conditions vary widely , and with them temperature , wind speeds and ventilation rates , the need for local analysis the air resource of every city is unique . As an international science community , urban tried to reach through global networks and . Urban climate was recognised as an issue early in the history of global environmental governance ( family housekeeping in the phrase of Max , 1987 ) Under leadership , the World Meteorological Organisation promoted research into cities through its Commission for , one of eight established at the first Congress in 1951 . An international study group on urban climates was set up as early as 1959 in partnership with the International Federation of Housing Planning ( the International Society for Biometeorology ( and the du ( Subsequent collaborations included the World Health Organisation , which a 1968 Conference on Urban Climates in Brussels and a 1981 Mexico City congress on Urban Climatology and its Applications with Special Regard to Tropical Areas and the United Nations Environment Programme ( ofa 992 meeting on Tropical Urban Climates in . the anthropogenic effects of on climate for the World Meteorological in a Special Report of 1976 . Interestingly , he noted in the same report that was also beginning to study anthropogenic alteration of the climate of the earth , adding prophetically it is to be hoped that this surveillance will give an early warning of untoward happenings ( 1976 , 26 ) At the urban scale , of course , evidence the untoward was already abundant . All these meetings featured appeals to to become aware of anthropogenic climate effects . The acquisition of more knowledge about the climate of cities , wrote William in a feature for Scientific American , may in the long run be one of the key to man survival ( 1967 , 24 ) The international climatological community made repeated efforts

to raise awareness through meetings , institutional links , training initiatives and publications . Examples from a single year include two World Meteorological Organisation reports , Weather , climate and human settlements ( 1976 ) and Urban climatology and its relevance to urban design ( Chandler , 1976 ) as well as published proceedings on Planning and construction in conformity with the climate ( 1976 ) and The role of local and regional government in improving the environment of human settlements ( 1976 ) Climate experts researched the training of architects and town planners and campaigned to improve the almost coverage of meteorological factors within the curricula of built environment schools . Remarkably , their lobbying effort extended to an unsolicited of 1500 copies of the text Fundamental knowledge in urban and building climatology to Europe architecture and planning schools ( 1980 ) The scientific community was repeatedly disappointed by the lack of response to its efforts at knowledge transfer . The political scientist Richard explained the reasons urban would resist evidence of inadvertent anthropogenic climate change until public opinion forced them to do so ( 1976 , 255 ) Standards for an built environment could perhaps be applied to new towns ( as in , 1963 ) or reconstructions but were of little use for actually existing cities . Technical Note No . acknowledged the problem Many ancient towns and elsewhere still retain their basic mediaeval plan in their central areas and this resistance to fundamental change , in spite of urban renewal , imposes a severe constraint upon the successful application of urban climatological principles to city design Urban climatology is relevant only in cases major expansion , urban redevelopment , or most obviously , in new town design ( Chandler , 1976 , 39 ) The author , Tony Chandler , had compiled the first comprehensive bibliography of urban climatology ( 1970 ) His account of climatic design drew extensively on the meteorological but , tellingly , contained not a single reference to city planning literature . Even more remarkably , the same was true of a bibliography of 250 entries on The Urban Environment A Climatological Anomaly ( Berlin , 1972 ) compiled specifically for use in planning education and research by the Council of Planning Librarians . The difficulties of translation were compounded as climatology shifted from empirical observation towards more sophisticated mathematical understandings of energy budget , radiation and street canyon properties . Melvin Marcus presidential address to the in New Orleans in 1979 reproached his physical geography colleagues for their tendency to operate in a natural science isolation booth expressing little the relevance their and anomalous precipitation statistics may have to urban planning or quality of life ( Marcus , 1979 , 531 ) The problem was . Urban professionals , fortheir part , had become strangely uninterested in the environment , especially its invisible atmospheric layers ( 1981 ) It was not always nexus between human wellbeing and physical setting had been a central concern of early planning theory . Planning meant a physical shaping of morphology , density , layout , street form and land use pattern . Yet the tendency of planning theory after 1970 was to regard environmental determinism as a fallacy . The mainstream of planning , particularly in the world , was being redefined as a mode of social intervention based upon the methods of social science ( 2006 ) An equally significant shift was occurring at the scale of building design as professional responsibility for many aspects of thermal performance shifted from architects to heating , ventilation and air conditioning engineers . Neither of the two main target audiences for Fundamental Knowledge on Urban and Building Climatology was in receptive mode for insights into their role . POLICY Cities which did incorporate urban climatic analysis into planning were the exception rather than the rule but some did . The Building Research Station at Haifa provided important climatological support of new settlement design in Israel ( 1969 ) The Japanese architect undertook experiments of different layout options for his successful entry for the reconstruction of the Yugoslavian city of after the earthquake of 1961 ( 1967 ) Major cities tended to commission climatic investigations episodically in response to critical events . Concern over urban dust domes or haze hoods was a typical trigger ( 1967 ) A inversion episode in 1966 caused 168 deaths in New York City . Mayor John Lindsay appointed the public health expert Austin Heller as the Commissioner of the Department of Air Pollution Control ( Heller set up an air resource management ( ARM ) network of 37 aerometric stations across the five boroughs to measure sulphur dioxide , carbon monoxide , smoke shade , suspended particulates , dust fall , wind direction and air temperature . University partners were also involved in the interests of of the academic and operational branches of applied science and basic research . Heller noted that our department is probably the first city agency in the nation to effect such an arrangement ( 1968 ) For a brief while , New York was a aware city . As Mayor Lindsay commented in a broadcast A few years ago , it would have taken a meteorologist to tell you what an inversion of the weather was . Now any New Yorker can tell you that it when the layers air above us arrange themselves in such a way that our pollution can hangs at street level in a Until Heller came , the department never had a meteorologist on its Imagine that . No meteorologist in a department is the air around us . Not only do we now have a meteorologist , but a department is already working with Columbia , 10

NYU , and Cooper Union in developing pattern , our weather and air currents , and a of new device that may hold down pollution at it . With a change of mayor , climate policy went off the agenda in New York City for four decades and the leading urban climatology unit on the Bronx campus of New York University was disbanded . The city observation networks and the research partnerships were only revived after 2002 with the election of Mayor Michael , who positioned New York for leadership of the new wave of global climate change awareness ( 2009 et , 2011 ) For consistent application of climatological principles to urban management , we must look to countries , particularly the southern zone of Germany , together with neighbouring Swiss cantons and Austria . This is the only part of Europe which has an extensive literature of urban climatological and where city plans will routinely cite air movement as a basis of planning policies . Both theory and practice having common origins in a national culture of weather extends far beyond awareness of und and the atmospheric dimension of public health . Factors include a conscious reaction against the negative of industrial Britain in Germany late industrialisation collective memory that has cultural as well as chemical properties a legal system that clearly allows constraint of private property rights in the environmental interest and a constitution which requires the to engage more than most national meteorology agencies with services to state and local governments . Two examples can be mentioned . has an important place in the history of climatology . Max Joseph , creator of the Hygiene , founded the first institute for urban hygiene in Munich in 1879 . Several of the foundation texts of originate in the city university , especially the seminal The Climate Near the Ground of Rudolf published in 1927 and still in ( Geiger et , 2009 ) and the Das of his pupil Albert . regulation has been shaped by considerations of light and air ever since the late century , when Prince Elector Karl declared Munich an open city demolished the fortifications , created the Garten as a public park and building regulations based on separation distance . The 1904 der und by Fischer was a remarkable synthesis of enclosed street corridors along principal roads with open layout along side oth elements reflecting the climatic principles of his mentor ( Collins and Collins , 1965 ) Fischer plan remained in effect ntil 1980 , Munich having deliberately decided to rebuild the gaps in its ruined street plan after World War II rather than open them , as and Berlin did , into a modernist ' Under the city of 1963 ( the Jensen Plan ) the extensions of the growing metropolis were to alternate with green environmental fingers . And , coming up to date , the resent overall strategy die 1998 is based on a triad of echo synthesis of urbanity and nature ( City of Munich , 2010 ) design strategy is underpinned by climate science . In 1986 , the Bavarian urban climate unit undertook a comprehensive measurement and modelling campaign that demonstrated Munich dependence for summer ventilation on cold air draining off the Alps to the south and daytime flows of fresh air from the plain to the east ( 1988 ) Soon a , it was decided to relocate the airport from the east to the north of the city , releasing its huge site for a trade fair and urban extension , the Reim , which would be the first demonstration project of the set out in the city strategic vision ( City of Munich , 2010 ) airport redevelopment concept was devised by one of the three behind the 1986 study of Munich , Professor , now of the University of . The entire layout is configured to protect the quality of that slow wind that blows from the plain on sticky summer days . A landscaped band 400 metres wide from east to west of the site serves as a fresh air ade ' to guarantee the ventilation of the city centre from the east . Then , within the residential neighbourhoods , a secondary system of open spaces runs into the housing blocks to pour cool nocturnal alpine air from the south ( City of Munich , 1995 , It is an unusually direct application of climate analysis to urban design . seminal example of application of climatology to the practice of urban design is found in , state capital of . As a manufacturing town surrounded by steep hills , has always suffered from air quality problems , exacerbated by exceptionally low wind speeds and weak refer to the city centre as the ( cauldron ) Its planning history shows a level of awareness of climatic factors exceptional even by German standards . access of light and air was the design basis of the first workers out by the authorities for postal and railway workers in 1868 . The city extension plan devised by Karl Friedrich in 1897 was based on ( principles with houses spaced along one side only of the new streets along the valley sides ( City of , 2007 , The extension plan approved by Mayor Gauss in 1901 included a technical appendix by Fritz on the natural patterns of wind movement in the city valleys this science provided the basis for detailed regulation of building separation and height . As the works grew along the River Neckar in the first half of the century , so did concern for , to the point where the municipal council decided in 1938 to appoint an meteorologist to ensure that climatic factors were given full weight in the implementation of its 1935 Urban Construction . Paradoxically , with the outbreak of war , Karl first task was to create a network of rooftop chemical and fog 11

catapults that would shroud the entire city and its factories from the view of Allied bombers . Yet the camouflage tactic also provided valuable experimental data on the pattern of in and around . After the war , built up a specialist team which continues today as the Urban Climatology Unit . succeeded him in 1971 and in 2008 . municipal team of 10 urban maintains weather stations , carries out ad hoc measurement such as an experimental release of in the hills above the city in 1981 operates a comprehensive set of computer models of the city climate . and are both active scientists , well connected not only with research units in German universities but with urban ( et , 2011 ) first attracted international attention through a documentary film entitled Urban Development and Urban Climate an example from the Federal Republic of Germany , presented with in Chinese , Russian , Japanese and English as the official German contribution to the United Nations Habitat I Conference in Vancouver in June 1976 . The film vivid imagery included long shots of shimmering thermal and three dimensional animations of cold air of blue gel pouring down valley sides until blocked by buildings . Above all , the documentary displayed climate management in the person of Manfred Rommel , son of the World War II general , city maps with his staff of meteorologists and planners . It caused a stir in North America ( 1981 ) and yielded extensive links with Japanese scientists and municipalities . most significant policy contribution has been a translation device , the or urban climate map , connecting meteorological analysis of the city to policy guidelines for planning . mapping of air flows and thermal exchanges provides an evidence base for controls over the siting and massing of buildings , the management of open spaces and the reservation of unbuilt zones as and conduits of the strategic ventilation system ( and Webb , 2012 ) It is useful equally for the determination of individual sites and for the spatial planning of the metropolitan region of million inhabitants ( 2008 ) The prosperous capital in the Neckar valley , where vineyards with car production , might be a special case . Yet under the heading of Environmental Meteorology Climate and Air Pollution Maps for Cities and Regions , its methodology has seen adopted as national standard by the , the German Institute of Engineers , and applied domestically in ( for example ) Berlin , Frankfurt and . Its success has prompted international interest , led Japanese cities such as Osaka , Kobe , Yokohama , and , with many others following ( Ren et , 2011 ) The focus on topography , roughness and the katabatic and anabatic systems of air circulation has particular appeal in dense centres such as Hong Kong , City , Singapore and , where even the slightest acceleration of air lows may have significant implications for ventilation and human thermal comfort ( et , 2011 ) So a methodology evolved in the temperate zone has found a following in the southern a part , for example , in the Hong Kong response to the SARS crisis ( and Ward , 2011 , 2012 ) Recalling the historical precedents , the potential for knowledge transfer which Richard doubted in 1976 now seems strong . In a context of widespread awareness of urban climatic factors and their significance , the appeal of climate mapping is obvious . Less so are the institutional requirements that underpin resources to mount weather observation campaigns , expertise and computing power for models , institutional capacity to derive and enforce planning guidelines . It remains to be seen how mobile in and Ward terms ( 2011 ) this technology of urbanism really is . CONCLUSION might these precedents affect our understanding of urban climate change ?

First , obviously , they shift the . The urban island appears not as an anomalous discovery of the but in its true light as the category of anthropogenic climate change . Instead of seeing adaptation planning as still only a novelty ( et , 2011 , 238 ) we have many decades of experiment to draw upon , and notjust the handful that crop up repeatedly in the urban climate literature , such as Mayor stream in Seoul and unbuilt master plan for , Shanghai . Secondly , the perspective of urban climatology brings into relief a different set of climate factors . The model highlights risks such as , drought , typhoons and temperature extremes , but has less to say about everyday and localised weather phenomena such as rainfall and wind patterns . Air movement , perhaps the most important variable affecting thermal comfort , occurs in every city at every hour of day and night and is directly affected by building form and urban layout . Ventilation is notjust of interest in , it enhances in all weathers . Thirdly , all the successful examples of urban climate management depend upon spatial mapping . The repeating patterns of urban weather ( their climates ) are complex and spatially specific , requiring observation and analysis of local . Diurnal of urban wind circulation have an intricate spatial distribution linked to topography , building form and landscape . Solar radiation and shade patterns relate directly to street canyon dimensions and the spacing of buildings . Human comfort levels are highly sensitive to air flows and humidity levels dependent on presence or absence of street trees . So the level of resolution is a vital consideration the urban climate is a phenomenon but it can only be usefully understood in micro . The variables at the 12

centre of methodology can not be derived from models derived from forecasts of annual average temperature , precipitation and sea level rise . Ren et . 2011 ) show how a city geographical information system ( GIS ) base can support the integration of three broad categories of data analytical maps of climatic elements such as air temperature , atmospheric humidity , wind velocity and direction , precipitation , fog and mist , and air pollution geographical terrain information derived from topographic , and soil type maps and a third layer of data on land use , landscape and buildings , with associated planning parameters . The climatic analysis map translates into , to improve and maintain desired , and reactive , to deal with undesirable consequences of development . The methodology reveals potentials that may be missed by a resilience approach potential to reduce urban thermal loads to existing urban ventilation paths and chart new air paths where needed to protect cold air production and drainage areas in the landscape to harness topography , breezes and the internal thermal circulation of the urban heat island . Again , climate change adaptation strategy offers a nice example of the coupling in practice ( City of , 2010 ) Fourthly , urban climatology offers a different perspective on mitigation and adaptation . has argued that the surest way to mitigate carbon emissions is by planning for compact , urbanism , high living standards and high quality of life from high consumption and high greenhouse gas emissions ( 2011 , 61 ) Yet the same report fails to explain how are to become climatically informed , except by compiling lists of previous extreme weather events and small disasters ( 2011 , 1117 ) We argue the equal importance of understanding everyday weather . Approximately half the urban heat island is caused by human energy use , and half is solar energy trapped in the urban form . Both aspects can be affected , for better or worse , by physical planning and landscape . This spatial , diagnostic approach is most urgently required in tropical cities where present planning and design practices still aggravate instead of mitigate ( Emmanuel , 2005 ) And finally , the story of urban climatology has an institutional dimension . It is true that the urban climate awareness campaigns mounted over four decades by the World Meteorological Organisation , the World Health Organisation and the International Federation for Housing and Planning had disappointingly little impact but perhaps they should be remembered precisely because they demonstrate the limits of declaratory international action . For successful examples of applied climate science , look to City strategic vision for New York City , makes the point released in 2007 , updated in 2011 and put to the test in dramatic fashion by Hurricane Sandy in 2012 ( 2012 ) Urban climate management is a classic instance of municipalism in action it depends upon local capacity , and political a mayor poring over the detailed city map with local expert staff . Cities which understand and manage their local climate have a head start in responding to global climate change . We can almost invert the famous mediaeval German proverb city air makes free to say that a free city can make its air . Which cities can realistically hold out that hope is a topic for another day . 13

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Resilience for Whom ?

The Problem Structuring Process of the Resilience Analysis by Hugo This article was originally published in Sustainability , 196 This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution International ( BY ) license ABSTRACT Resilience is a flexible concept open to many different interpretations . The openness of resilience implies that while talking about resilience , stakeholders risk talking past each other . The plurality of the interpretations has practical implications in the analysis and planning of resilience . This paper reflects on these implications that have so far not explicitly been addressed in the literature , by discussing the problem structuring process ( of a resilience analysis . The discussion is based on the analysis of food security resilience to climate change in , jointly undertaken by the author , governmental authorities , farmers and academics of the national university . The aim of this discussion is to highlight the underestimated challenges and practical implications of the resilience concept ambiguity and potential avenues to address them . The contributions of the results presented in this twofold . First , they show that , in practice , the resilience concept is constructed and subjective . Second , there remains a need for a participatory and contested framework for the of resilience . Keywords food security resilience power system dynamics problem structuring process . INTRODUCTION Climate change effects start to be recognised as threats to food system sustainability and food security . Sustainability involves maintaining the functionality of the system without compromising its capacity to do so in the future . However , undergoing effects of climate change compromises food system functionality by contributing to water scarcity and pest exacerbation . Resilience is understood as the system adaptive ability of maintaining its functionality even when the system is being affected by a disturbance . For this reason , resilience is a compelling framework for researchers and seeking to understand how systems ( SESs ) adapt and transform to withstand changes in the environment . In practice , resilience is often used as a measure of a SES capability to respond and adapt to new conditions ( climate change ) Like et al . 18 ) describe , sustainability is the measure of system performance , whereas resilience can be seen as a means to achieve it . Resilience has the potential to contribute to food security by enhancing farmers , and other stakeholders , capacity for foreseeing and adapting to possible changes ( 270 ) For instance , in the food systems literature , a number of studies have used resilience as framework for understanding how systems can adapt and transform in the presence of disturbances in the environment while still providing required amounts and quality of food . Applications of resilience can be found in numerous disciplines , ranging from engineering to psychology to risk management . The increased popularity of resilience is due , at least partially , to the flexible meaning of the concept . Resilience definitions have often been characterised as vague and unprecise in practical terms . While the flexibility of resilience has moved it to the category of mainstream concepts and buzzwords , the same ambiguity represents a challenge to its application in prescriptive and normative settings . These challenges manifest when practitioners need to the concepts in the literature to the context in which resilience will be applied . different stakeholders of the analysed system have different and sometimes conflicting interpretations of what resilience means in practical terms . Since each stakeholder interprets resilience differently , the scope of the analysis to be undertaken is not a given but is constructed through a problem structuring process ( The term is used in this paper to describe the process which a presented set of conditions is translated into a set of problems , issues sufficiently to allow specific action 10 . During the , stakeholders interpret the available information in light of their values and knowledge and negotiate is the purpose and the boundaries of the study to commence ( referred to from now on as the scope of the resilience analysis ) The cognitive , social and political components , involved in the construction of the scope of analysis , condition its development outcomes . The social and political nature of the make it impossible to separate the conclusions and recommendations produced the context in which they were produced . When talking about resilience , we can not avoid the question resilience for whom ?

Literature has recently started to recognise some of the practical challenges of resilience ambiguity however , it still lags behind on recognising the political implications of resilience ambiguity in the analysis and its outcomes , A . While some progress has been made by the definition of resilience ( see for example ) resilience frequently continues to be presented 17

as a politically neutral approach ( 134 ) The influence of stakeholders agendas and power relationships are often overseen by practitioners . Although these dimensions of the have been discussed for a long time in the literature regarding problem structuring methods ( their implications for the resilience analysis are still unexplored . This paper contributes to closing these gaps by discussing the political and social implications of resilience ambiguity in the . To this purpose , this paper looks at the of a analysis of food security resilience to climate change . This case is used to discuss some of the cognitive and political challenges of resilience . This discussion is informed by the personal construct theory 15 and enriched by a science epistemology 16 for managing a wide range of perspectives . The aim of this discussion is to reflect on ( a ) the implications of having a diversity of resilience interpretations in the and ( the potential avenues to mediate stakeholder engagement and mitigate the challenges this diversity entails . CASE STUDY ANALYSING THE OF FOOD SECURITY TO CLIMATE CHANGE IN This research was conducted within the qualitative paradigm of case study research and is part of an independent based discussion for the analysis of and food security resilience to climate change in . Specifically , this case study describes the followed to define the scope of the resilience analysis undertaken in the district of . As part of this , the author conducted a series of interviews among relevant stakeholders in the local maize production system . Background , similar to other developing countries , faces food security challenges that will only increase as climate change affects scale farmers capabilities to produce food . chronic malnutrition , an accepted measure of food insecurity , is one of the highest in the world 19 , reaching 55 in rural areas 20 . Climate change effects , such as severe droughts and increased average temperatures , already compromise the food production in , especially among farmers 21 . Recognising this as problematic , some studies that explore potential means to mitigate climate change effects have been commenced separately by academics , nongovernmental organisations ( and the local and central government in . This research is part of these initiatives , independently conducted by the author with the cooperation of numerous stakeholders in the district of . is located in the Northwest region of , on the border with the South of Mexico . is one of the poorest , most vulnerable districts in . In 2014 , its population was estimated at people , with of these people under the line of poverty 22 . main economic activities are the mining industry of silver and gold and the production of coffee 23 . Nevertheless , the production of maize is an important activity for . The majority of the population is indigenous , from the of Mam and , with a cultural dependence on maize as the main source of calories . Among indigenous groups , maize represents a 71 of share in basic grains consumption ) Methodology The intention of the study was to discuss potential policies to enhance food security resilience and to explore in an operational manner the impacts of these policies on different parts of the system . The author , with the support of two academics from the de San Carlos de ( national university in ) started by identifying ( mapping ) and engaging relevant stakeholders as early as possible and throughout the . The following stakeholder groups accepted the invitation to participate in the ( i ) the central government ( ii ) iii ) farmers from and ( iv ) academics and from the University . The number of delegates from each group and their backgrounds are presented in Table . Table . Stakeholders group representatives . Stakeholder Group Number or Delegates Participating Background Central Government ( Organization ( Agronomist Project Managers Farmers ( Maize Farmers Academics ( AC ) Agronomist Professor Researcher 18

During the , the author conducted interviews to gather stakeholders perspectives about the food security resilience of the maize production system of the region . In the first part of the interviews , the author asked the delegates of the different stakeholder groups about the agendas they have for the local food system . Subsequently , causal loop diagrams ( were used to capture stakeholders broad understanding of the underlying causes of system vulnerability ( the extent to which the system will be affected by ) climate change . Finally , the delegates were also asked to rank the stakeholders in the system in terms of influence on and interest in the local food system . The elicitation of stakeholders agendas for the local food system was done by discussing the following general questions with the delegates of each stakeholder group What would you like to get from the maize production system ?

In this context , what does resilience of food security to climate change mean ?

What are the critical success factors of policies enhancing food security ?

After the interviews , the author compiled and the different answers . Similar answers were grouped in the same variable or short statement to simplify further analysis . The resulting statements were discussed in further interviews with each delegate to ensure they reflected their own perspectives . When needed , changes were made and again discussed with the specific delegate requesting the change . Beside the narratives provided by the delegates , this paper uses as a means for capturing stakeholders assumptions . are diagrams representing , in a simple manner , a possible set of causal relationships between different variables of the systems . are particularly useful for identifying circular relationships known in the systems literature as feedback loops . The rigor of forces the participants to carefully and consistently make their assumptions explicit and to put their problem definition to test 26 ( 3811 ) Thus , are a suitable way to represent and compare different interpretations of the problem and the causal explanations held by the stakeholder groups participating in the . might be employed in the ( also known as the stage of the modelling process ) to elicit participants understanding of the problem . During the , the modeller focuses on a verbal description of the feedback loops that are assumed to have caused the reference mode 19 ( 119 ) Namely , in this paper , the were used to represent the causal explanations for the lack of resilience of food security in the region . This elicitation might be done , as it was in the case of this paper , during one to one interviews with experts in the field , in our case an agronomist from the university , and stakeholders of the problem at hand . During the interviews , the author drafted representing what the delegates were describing . The author started by asking the delegates what were the main causes of the decrease and fluctuations of the of maize ( as a measure of food security 29 ) experienced in the past 10 years in the region of ( see Figure ) The causes stated by the delegates were summarized by the author in relevant variables while transcribing them to the diagram . Then , the author asked delegates to explain how those variables influenced each other . These causal links between different variables were represented in the diagram by arrows connecting the cause with its effects . When needed , new variables were added to the diagram . Figure . Maize in . Average maize in 100 090 . 080 000 050 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 ( At the end of the interview , the delegates were asked to complete the drafted by the author by adding variables , causal relationships or any elements missing in the diagram . Later , the author worked on his own by all the produced by each delegate into a single per stakeholder group . The single were validated and discussed with the delegates of each stakeholder group in separate interviews to ensure all of their views were appropriately captured in the diagrams . If participants found important issues 19

missing in the diagram , those issues were added to the final version . Finally , delegates were asked to characterise the different stakeholders in the system . To be precise , participants were asked to rank from ( low ) to ( high ) the level of influence each stakeholder group has on the local food system . During this , participants were invited to consider in their assessment what resources each stakeholder can allocate for this purpose and the level of organisation and the reputation of each . Similarly , participants were asked to rank the stakeholders from ( low ) to ( high ) according to their interest in the problem ( resilience of food security ) The author tabulated the results into a single chart showing the average level of influence of each stakeholder group . Analytical Framework The results were analysed in light of personal construct theory ( 15 . is based on the assumption that a person needs to make sense of the problem to address it a person processes are psychologically by the ways in which he anticipates events 30 ( Thus , to analyse resilience , stakeholders need first to make sense of what resilience means . To illustrate how this cognitive process unfolds , this paper adapts the simplified model proposed by Eden 31 to examine how stakeholders construct their own interpretations of resilience ( see Figure ) According to Eden 31 model , stakeholders make sense of the concept of resilience by selecting particular elements that are applicable to the problem at hand and its context . This perception is then filtered through the individual system of values and beliefs to articulate its own interpretation of what resilience means in practical terms . This separation of selective perception and follows the personal construct theory of Kelly 15 . Figure . Construction of stakeholders interpretation of resilience . Note Adapted from Eden 31 . Beliefs and values systems I I Selective Perception Interpretation of Resilience Resilience Context of I There is no clear distinction between values and beliefs , as they are closely interconnected 31 . However , for analysis purposes , this paper explores two separate interconnected aspects of the beliefs and values systems strategic agendas and mental models . The term strategic agenda is used here to describe the set of goals each stakeholder has forthe system . Similarly , the term mental model is used to describe the conceptual representations each stakeholder has about how the system works 32 . Strategic agendas and mental models are not separate entities . They support each other , and together , they are supported by wider individual value systems 31 . In settings , closely linked to the understanding of what resilience means in practical terms , is the concept of adaptability or the the capacity of actors in the system to influence resilience 33 ( Stakeholders adaptive actions depend on how they perceive the disturbance is changing the conditions of their system . Since timing , magnitude and origin of the disturbance are , at least to some extent , unpredictable , the nature of the change that the disturbance produces deviates from the normal analysis 34 . In these conditions of high uncertainty , identifying the mechanisms driving adaptation is not straight forward but depends on the stakeholders mental models about how the system works . To analyse how stakeholders understand the system , this paper uses the reflections of and 35 about modifying systems and the theories of and 36 on emergent systems . According to the aforementioned sources , the explanations each stakeholder group gave to the system behaviour were classified into ( a ) endogenously driven the observed effects of disturbances affecting the system are the result of the functional links between its different elements . Adaptation emerges from the mechanisms the system has to regulate itself and can only be enhanced by strengthening them 35 . The solution to the problem is within the system boundaries . exogenously driven the disturbance affecting the system comes from outside the system and , to adapt to the new conditions introduced , the system needs of external interventions that push it back to its equilibrium state . The solution is outside the system boundaries . 20

( chaos the uncertainty about the disturbance affecting the system and complexity of the system itself are perceived so high that it is impossible to identify links between actions ( outside or within the system ) and their consequences . The solution is unknown . This classification offers a helpful analytical framework to explain how delegates from different stakeholder groups understand the system and the differences in the policies they will propose in further stages . Nonetheless , the agendas and mental models used by stakeholders to construct their own interpretation of resilience are only some of the ingredients for the scope of the resilience analysis . The manifestation of power in the is indeed critical analytical lens to understand complications of resilience ambiguity . In fact , power effect on resilience is one of the most unexplored but most contested characteristics of resilience . Case study research shows that in prescriptive settings , the of resilience is predominantly a negotiation endeavour . For instance , et al . 37 describe that in many case studies undertaken by the Resilience Alliance , the scope of resilience analysis reflects , to a large extent , the interest of powerful stakeholders , undermining perspectives of ethnic minorities and ( powerless stakeholders ) Similarly , Larsen et al . 38 highlight the tensions regarding roles , control and between powerful stakeholders during the process of building resilience in Thailand communities . These cases studied in the literature show that during the of resilience , stakeholders will try to persuade the others to join or accept their own interpretation of resilience and to articulate the scope of the resilience analysis accordingly . As illustrated in Figure , the scope of analysis is a negotiated outcome of the that reflects not only the interpretations of each stakeholder in the system but also the power relationships between them . Figure . representation ofthe problem structuring process ( analysis . a Models Power and Negotiation during the Problem Structuring Process ( Interpretations of resilience ) 355 , Results . Strategic Agendas Tabulated results from the interview show that delegates from the same group coincide to a large extent in the answers they provided about their agendas . Table summarizes these tabulated answers . In Table , it is noticeable that most of the delegates of the same group agreed on a similar answer . Based on the interviews results , the strategic agenda held by each stakeholder group can be summarized as follow Central Government ( The purpose of the analysis is to identify how to increase the household wealth and particularly the money available to buy food so that households can afford enough food even when droughts reduce the yields of maize in the region . 21

Organization ( NGO ) The purpose of the analysis is to identify how to enhance crop productivity so that households can produce food and revenues constantly despite the droughts . Note that in the words of the NGO delegates , crop productivity is understood as the amount of crop ( not exclusively maize ) produced from each Quetzal invested by the farmers . Academics ( AC ) The purpose of the analysis is to identify how to increase maize yields and reserves as a mean to prevent starvation by increasing farmers revenues and food supply to the region . Farmers ( The purpose of the analysis is to identify how to increase food production ( not limited to maize or crops in general ) and maize reserves to have food year round . Table . Summarized answers to the interviews . Code What would you like households to gel from the Produce maize Produce food ?

Produce food for locals In this , what Being able iu afford food own when droughts resilience of food food in despite ul droughts in climate Dun during bad change means ?

Hare and ale the critical fur fund success of Crap ' i ! policies enhancing Yield food ?

Note , Farmers . Causal Loop Diagrams Figure A presents the prepared jointly by the author and delegates of each group . In general , diagrams are relatively simple and focused ( with the exception of diagram in Figure ) on one or two main causal explanations of the problem to address ( decrease and fluctuations of maize in the region ) Next , there is a brief explanation of each diagram . Central Government ( Farmers productivity increases the incomes and , therefore , the wealth of the farmers . Higher wealth increases farmers capacity to use fertilizers ( fertilizers are more affordable ) Usage of fertilizers is directly related to the productivity and , therefore , the more fertilizers the farmers use the more productive they become in a virtuous cycle represented by the feedback loop in Figure la . This loop , however , is perturbed by droughts ( disturbances of the system ) that reduce farmers productivity , reducing their overall wealth and hence their capacity to acquire food ( food ) Organization ( NGO ) Farmers productivity increases the incomes and therefore the wealth of the farmers . Higher wealth increases farmers capacity to access better seeds and formal education . Seeds of improved varieties , the ones that require less water , are assumed to increase crop , especially during drought seasons , compared to seeds coming from informal sources ( on farm save seeds for example ) Better seeds increase wealth in the virtuous cycle represented by in Figure Ab . Access to formal education is assumed to be linked to better agriculture practices ( appropriate usage of fertilizers and land planning ) Better agriculture practices increase revenues and wealth in the virtuous cycle represented by in Figure lib . Academics ( AC ) The causal explanation represented in Figure lac focuses on the variation of the real yield against the expected one ( yield shortage in the diagram ) Yield shortage results into lower and opportunity costs that reduce families cash and their capacity to invest in fertilizers and livestock ( see feedback loops and in Figure lot ) Higher yield shortage also translates into a reduction of the land planted each season ( see in Figure lot ) because farmers need to spend more time on other activities ( working on coffee plantations ) and less time farming . The expected yield eventually gets adjusted , decreasing the yield shortage and opportunity costs ( see loops and in Figure lot ) The increase in droughts occurrence increases yield shortage by affecting the maize system and its real yield , reducing at the same time the land planted and the cash available for the next season harvest . Farmers ( Maize production increases incomes and households cash , allowing farmers to acquire more resources needed in farming activities ( seeds , fertilizers , This eventually increases the maize production . Higher production results in a ) higher food reserves 22

and ) higher incomes ( see feedback loop in Figure Lid ) However , there are two drawbacks from the feedback loop . First , the acquisition of resources decreases households cash ( see feedback loop in Figure Ad ) thereby food . Second , higher production will eventually translate into lower maize prices , reducing farmers income and profit margins ( see feedback loop in Figure lad ) Figure . Causal loop diagrams ( explaining the decrease and of maize in . were produced by ( a ) central government delegates ( NGO delegates ( academics delegates and ( farmers delegates during semi structured interviews . a ) Central government delegates NGO delegates Food Food Farmers . Wealth to ' ea fertilizers level Incomes Revenues Usage of Fertilizers , I ! Productivity Productivity ' Academics delegates ) Farmers delegates Food . Food Maize price Reserves cash Organic matter cos ! In so income Land ' ER ?

Family Cash Maize Fal ' etc . Food Maize yield . Grid Figure presents the stakeholders grid produced by the delegates . The four stakeholder groups participating in this case study were consistently identified by all the delegates as those with the highest interest in the problem ( see Figure ) The central government and NGO working in the area were described as being the stakeholders in a better position to solve the problem or those with higher influence on the problem ( see quadrant I in Figure ) Other stakeholders , like the farmers producing food in the region and traders , were also recognised as highly influential . However , there was an agreement among delegates of all the stakeholder groups participating that , unfortunately , farmers and maize traders have no interest in enhancing food security in the region ( quadrant IV in Figure ) While recognized as those with higher interest in the problem , farmers were as the group with the lowest influence on it ( see quadrant II in Figure ) Academics and stakeholders not participating in the ( local government ) were also portrayed as interested parties with low influence . 23

Figure . diagram summarizing stakeholders rank in the maize production system in . Note stakeholders in dotted lines did not take part in this research . I I ' Central ' Government INTEREST Low High INFLUENCE . COMPLICATIONS OF THE IN THE ANALYSIS OF The results presented in Section offer relevant evidence to discuss the ambiguity of resilience and its complications . The ambiguity of resilience , in this case , does not arise from the differences between many definitions of resilience 13 , but from the way in which stakeholders interpret it fortheir specific context and problem . The differences that emerged during the be noticeable for the reader , but the analytical lenses proposed in this paper offer a perspective of the deeper and more conflicting differences in the agendas and mental models held by each stakeholder group . These cognitive differences set the scene for analysing the conflict that could unfold during the negotiation of a single scope of resilience . The more mutually exclusive agendas and mental models are , the harder it is to reach a scope of resilience that satisfies all the stakeholders . As et al . 39 pointed out , adaptation will change social , political and economic relationships between stakeholders , yet not all these changes are desirable for everybody This section concludes by discussing the practical implications of resilience ambiguity in the process . These implications are not only political but also methodological and require thoughtful planning of the . While it might be possible to mitigate some drawbacks , more research is needed before outlining a comprehensive framework for addressing the political challenges that resilience entails . Constructing an Interpretation of Resilience The experience in the district of in shows that different stakeholders have different interpretations of resilience . These interpretations of resilience are context specific and reflect the values and beliefs of the stakeholders involved . In other words , stakeholders make sense of what resilience means in their particular context and frame the analysis process accordingly . In this case study , different interpretations of resilience are reflected in ( a ) the different goals and desired outcomes ( strategic agenda ) stated during the interviews ( see Table ) and ( the different descriptions of the causes of the problem ( mental models ) captured in the ( see Figure ) When looking at the strategic agenda , stakeholders see the maize production system at different levels of aggregation ( household level regional level ) As presented in the results section , delegates from the same stakeholder group share similar perspectives about the purpose of the system ( see Table ) With the exception of the farmers , the groups also share some alignment among themselves . The 24

answers in Table and summarized strategic agendas in the Results section show that most of the delegates have goals for the system , namely to promote local economic development . Alternatively , farmers focus on their current urgent problem of living in insecure food conditions . In other words , there are two main strategic agendas for the system . One agenda ( shared by many stakeholders ) is seeking to use the system as a tool for local regional economic development . The other agenda , held by the farmers , is to have food all year round . While there might be different arguments in favour of one agenda over the other one , it is unlikely that regional solutions will have any impact unless urgent issues challenging the farmers own subsistence are addressed . Similarly , solutions , addressing farmers immediate needs , might prove to be unsustainable in the if the wider problem is not tackled . Wider differences are found when looking at stakeholders mental models reflected in the developed . Academics and NGO delegates describe the system in endogenous terms . This endogenous perspective is reflected in the feedback loops identified in the they drafted ( see Figure , They look at the problem in a systemic way and try to find solutions within the system boundaries . They have , however , a different understanding of the vicious circles constraining food security . On the one hand , academics focus on the management of the water resources and reservoirs as a potential leverage point . The obvious cause of the problem is the deficiencies the to access water This is why that , now that droughts are becoming more common , more ( Academic delegate ) On the other hand , NGO delegates blame farmers lack of technical skills and training as the cause of their poor productivity and , hence , food insecurity . The solution they propose is to increase training and to provide farmers with better seeds to increase their productivity in a sustainable way . You see , there are several complications in the situation ofthese poor people because their culture doesnt let them . They use the same techniques they have been using since times . They have no formal education . You know that most ofthem can not read . It is really di to teach them and change their minds . We need to make an ort to provide them with the right seeds and the proper instruction to use them ( NGO delegate ) The government delegates describe the system as exogenous driven . These delegates think the way to influence the system is through the artificial enhancement of farmers productivity ( see Figure Lia ) Even though they identified a feedback loop in the system , their proposed solution focuses on ways to quickly boost the system performance , namely by using more fertilizers to increase productivity . he government is committed to provide a sustainable and plausible solution by providing they ( farmers ) need to increase their productivity and become more competitive Once they ( farmers ) level up with the market , should be a natural ( Central government delegate ) Farmers perceive the problem in a very different way . In their perspective , the increasing uncertainty about rainfall is transforming the system into a chaotic one . From their perspective , using more expensive seeds or more will be useless if the weather conditions are not good . Farmers do not feel in control of the system . They feel they are victims of the uncertainty of the yields that they will get at the end of the season . The problem is you don know the yield is going to be good or not Nowyou never know bad , we lost the money we spent on seeds ( Farmer delegate A ) The weather now can not be predicted You gamble every timeyou ( Farmer delegate ) Furthermore , the farmers do not see higher production as a means to increase their revenues but only as a means to increase their food reserves ( see Figure lid ) in their view , the region is isolated , and they do not have access to other markets to trade . The benefit they perceive from higher production is in having more maize to build food reserves for the future . Understanding and acknowledging different goals and mental models about the system will lead to a wider scope of analysis and might result in a more balanced process . solutions and systemic interventions could provide a balanced view between achieving outcomes and their consequences . Farmers chaotic view of the world challenges the mechanistic and balances view bythe acknowledgement . The system can not be assumed mechanistically following economic rules since human behaviour under stressful situations adapts in sometimes unexpected ways . An oversimplified understanding about how different groups will react during a crisis might lead to 25

policy failure 42 . For instance , while most of the stakeholders expect farmers to use a potential production surplus to increase their revenues , farmers will use it to increase their food reserves , affecting the policy effectiveness . Negotiating the Scope of Analysis The power to influence the final outcome is not symmetrical among stakeholders , with those holding key resources being in an advantageous position to impose their own interpretations in the final scope . System adaptation will influence social relations , governance and distribution of resources in any given population or place 39 ( However , as shown in this case , there is not always agreement about the changes and the scale at which those changes should be made . Those with higher level of influence in the scope of analysis might not be those directly affected by its outcomes . For instance , the farmers in are the stakeholders directly affected by potential decisions about how to enhance resilience , but they are also those with the least influence on the process ( see Figure ) Dower differences have contentious repercussions considering that those with a higher level of influence have different strategic agendas than those suffering the larger impacts of the policies implemented . This is particularly relevant since there is a clear difference the farmers interpretations and those held by the rest of the stakeholders . Considering the different interpretations of resilience , the power to set agendas about what issues are to be addressed needs to be an important consideration during the . Competitive agendas and mental models set the scenario for a game of power where different stakeholders seek to impose their own agendas on the scope of the analysis that will follow . The allocation and distribution of the access to natural resources have been , an expression of power tension between different groups . While building the resilience of the system outcomes , the resilience of the institutions and relationships defining those outcomes are also enhanced . Many stakeholders perceive the resilience analysis as an opportunity to gain power or to influence the system towards their own interests 14 . This power might exercised in many ways . For instance , stakeholders might scope the problem in isolation , ensuring their interpretations are the only ones represented . Alternatively , some groups could try to undermine those with competitive or opposite views by diminishing their credibility as shown in this case . For instance , note the comment above from NGO delegate in which the delegate undermines practices because they have no formal education . Any analysis that does not account for these tensions would result in an incomplete understanding of the scope of potential responses . short , recognising that there might be different interpretations of resilience implies accepting the as a negotiation and political . Seeing the as a negotiation forum means that practitioners need to acknowledge the social and political factors ( inequality and legitimacy ) shaping the scope of analysis and need to be transparent about the implications of these factors on their recommendations . Otherwise , the resilience analysis risks being used , possibly inadvertently , as a way to legitimise the power of groups and to impose particular means to manage natural resources 43 . What Are the Potential Implications ?

There are at least two implications resulting from the flexibility of resilience to interpretation . First , it seems unlikely that a proper analysis would result in a that does not account for the many different interpretations of resilience in each particular context . If the scope of analysis has been defined by only a few groups , it risks being too narrow , excluding important elements from the analysis and reducing the range of solutions explored . For instance , the analysis might focus on solutions , ignoring important feedback loop mechanisms of the system . Alternatively , a pure systemic view of the problem might fail to recognise uncertainty and might oversimplify decision rules and human behaviours . Second , stakeholders who ofthe problem will rarely support or of a solution that is not addressing their initial understanding of the problem 45 . The contribution of any solution is null if those ultimately responsible for implementing them are not willing to do so 46 . For instance , stakeholders might sabotage the policies proposed at the end of the analysis by refusing to participate in the implementation ( training and the introduction of new practices ) or , even worse , by explicitly opposing them ( demonstrations against the introduction of new seeds ) Potential Avenues for Mitigation Recommendations are not conclusive , but it is possible to outline avenues for further development with the aim of reducing the potential drawback of power in the . A possible avenue is to advocate for more participatory settings . So far , the SES literature has extensively discussed stakeholders participation as a requirement forthe enhancement of resilience in the SES . However , very little has been elaborated on the role of participation in the formulation of the problem as such . Facilitated modelling approaches , such as Group Model Building 47 or Cognitive Mapping 48 , might contribute to mediating this process ( by introducing the as a transitional object that helps to leverage power differences ) These methods contribute in leveraging the power between groups by forcing participants to make their assumptions explicit in a diagram that is challenged by the group . In this case , the diagram is used represent the problem definition shared by and agreed upon by different stakeholders through a process of negotiation and dialogue . 26

Alternatively , another option is to aim for a broader perspective in the analysis of resilience and to consider possible and in resilience between different groups and communities within the system . A broader perspective might be particularly useful when there is a conflict between and goals or when the boundaries of the system are not clear 53 . By using computer simulations , for example , it is possible to uncover unintended consequences that might result from perspectives . Uncovering unintended effects is possible because computer simulations are especially useful when the delays between the policies and their results are too large to allow for assessment by simple intuition . Simulations might also uncover unexpected and unintended consequences of policies that are beneficial to one group but negative for others . The latter is particularly important when analysing climate change problems because there are time lags or delays between policy measures ( or ) and effects often extend beyond the normal period of analysis . When important consequences of current policies materialise several years later ( in some cases decades later ) significant future stakeholders will not be present to voice their concerns and weigh in when preferences are into policy decisions . Present stakeholders might be willing to compromise the overall future detriment of the system for benefits . Namely , in the resilience analysis , present stakeholders might favour policies that yield more efficiency in the short term but diminish the capability of the system to continue providing the desired outputs in the long term . The benefits for the few who are defining the problem now might be preferred over the benefits for the many tomorrow . CONCLUSIONS The ambiguity of resilience is a challenge for practitioners that want to implement it as an analytical and framework in real life problems . This paper addresses the ambiguity of resilience from a cognitive and political perspective by focusing on how resilience is interpreted in practice instead of its theoretical definition . This paper argues that the interpretation of what resilience means in a specific context ( resilience of what ?

and the ways to achieve it are results of the values and beliefs of those with a stake in the system . In this light , the case study presented methods to identify and highlight some of the challenges and practical implications of resilience ambiguity . Specifically , this paper focuses on strategic agendas and mental models as observable expressions of stakeholders values , beliefs and knowledge about the system . The results discussed in this paper show that , in practice , different agendas and mental models compete during the to be part of the scope of resilience analysis . The question of what outcome of the system needs to be resilient has many answers ( revenues , yield , food supply ) The results presented in this paper show that stakeholders have different understandings of how the system works . For instance , while academics and delegates from the NGO participating in the study focused on enhancing virtuous cycles within the system , the central government delegates proposed solutions outsides the system boundaries . All of these solutions , however , ignored the bounded rationality of the farmers and the premises of their process . Including only a few stakeholders in the process risks many important aspects out of the scope of the analysis and therefore undermining its results . is also necessary to acknowledge the role of power shaping and filtering different interpretations of resilience into a formal scope of analysis . It is expected that those with more power will attempt to influence the to reflect their views and agendas . In the case in this paper , farmers have little influence in the and their agendas might , intentionally or accidentally , be bypassed by experts ( academics and researchers ) and . For instance , as discussed in this paper , farmers bounded rationality and socioeconomic position might be used as an argument for disregarding their knowledge and their claims . short , results show that the practical meaning of resilience is socially constructed by those participating in the and the way this is conducted will affect the result of the analysis . There are at least two practical implications of underestimating resilience ambiguity while structuring the scope of the resilience analysis . First , including only a few stakeholders in the process risks leaving many important aspects of the system out of the scope of the analysis to be undertaken . Second , poor stakeholder management also risks obstructing the implementation of proposed policies and , in the worst case , unintentionally harming those in more vulnerable . While literature starts to acknowledge the challenges and contentious implications of power in the resilience analysis ( see for instance ) more research is needed toward defining a framework of how to facilitate negotiation during the . resilience is to play a significant role in climate change adaptation , should be careful when structuring the scope of the resilience analysis and should seek for broader participation . Such broadening is not a simple case of bringing more perspectives . it is a fundamental shift in how knowledge is understood to operate and consequences of this for the kinds of questions we prior to our analyses ( 481 ) Increasing participation is not a normatively uncontroversial route either , but at least it acknowledges that policy solutions and institutions will have distributional and , thereby , moral consequences ( as most other forms of public policy do ) 27

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